Iran’s Achilles’ heel

The United States is considering deploying special forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island. U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly expressed serious interest in sending ground troops into Iran amid reports that the United States is considering a plan to take control of Kharg Island, through which, according to the American media outlet Axios, 90% of Iran’s exports of crude oil and petroleum products pass.

Kharg Island is a key industrial center of Iran’s economy, and destroying its infrastructure could effectively paralyze the Iranian economy. Despite this, U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have so far avoided targeting the island, which is considered something of an Achilles’ heel of Iran’s economy.

In this context, White House adviser Jared Agen said in an interview with Fox Business:
“Our goal is to take Iran’s vast oil resources out of the hands of terrorists.”

He compared Iran to Venezuela, claiming that after the United States removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, control over Venezuela’s oil industry effectively passed to American energy companies. Until now, President Trump has not publicly mentioned Iran’s vast natural resources. However, Agen’s remarks came amid reports that the U.S. military is discussing a plan to take control of Kharg Island through limited operations.

Kharg Island, located in the Persian Gulf, is home to Iran’s largest oil export terminal, through which about 90% of Iran’s oil exports pass. It is located about 483 kilometers northwest of the Strait of Hormuz and about 25 kilometers from the Iranian mainland.

The island, roughly 8 kilometers long and 4.5 kilometers wide, covers an area of about 25 square kilometers, approximately one-third the size of Ulleungdo. It hosts Iran’s largest crude oil export terminal, built in the 1960s by the American oil company Amoco, capable of loading up to 7 million barrels of crude oil per day.

Most of Iran’s coastline consists of shallow waters, making it difficult for large oil tankers to approach. However, Kharg Island has ports extending into deeper waters, allowing large tankers to dock. The southern part of the island is equipped with dozens of large storage tanks. In addition, underwater pipelines connect Iran’s main oil fields to the terminal on the island.

Because of its strategic importance, the island faced intense Iraqi air attacks during the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s.

A U.S. military operation aimed at destroying or taking control of the island’s infrastructure could cause enormous damage to Iran. At the same time, however, it carries the risk of escalating the war, causing further shocks in the energy market, and weakening any future Iranian government.

Previous U.S. administrations considered an attack on Kharg Island a “red line.” Even during recent intense bombing of Iran, Israel avoided attacking facilities on the island. Kharg Island was also excluded from the list of U.S. and Israeli bombing targets during the “12-day war” last June.

Therefore, the way the Trump administration handles Kharg Island could signal its long-term strategy toward Iran.

Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the conservative American think tank American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said that taking and controlling the island is “an obvious move.” In an interview with The Washington Post, he argued:

“Control of Iran’s energy resources would allow stronger pressure on the Iranian government’s revenues.”

American media also reported that President Trump is increasingly leaning toward the idea of deploying ground troops in Iran. NBC News reported on January 6 that:

“President Trump has expressed ‘serious interest’ in private conversations about sending U.S. troops into Iran.”

The report added that although Trump is not considering a large-scale invasion, he is reviewing plans to deploy small special-forces units to carry out strategic ground operations.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid also called for bombing Kharg Island, stating:

“All oil fields and the energy industry on Kharg Island must be destroyed. That is the way to collapse Iran’s economy and the regime.”

However, taking control of Kharg Island could lead to more complicated consequences beyond the military dimension. If the United States and Israel attack Kharg, Iran would gain justification to launch open and full attacks on the oil infrastructure of Persian Gulf states.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is sending the Navy’s largest and most advanced aircraft carrier to the Middle East, as the U.S. steps up plans for a potential attack on Iran, two U.S. officials said.

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is deploying to the region after spending several months in the Caribbean and Mediterranean. It will be joining the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and nine other warships already operating in the Middle East.

The crisis continues to escalate, and the question is: who is the beneficiary now, and who will pay the bill after all? Maybe all of us…

NN, DB